The long wait

This time of year is hardest for baseball fans, or at least it is for me. Spring training doesn’t start for three more months. Teams are still feeling each other out on trades. And free agents are drooling over improbable paydays.

And we fans are left to wait.

About the only thing we can do is speculate, as Chad Finn does here, over on Boston.com. Chad is predicting the opening day lineup for the Red Sox next April. Other than Adrian Gonzalez batting third and playing first base, it is a fairly conservative prediction. I agree with Chad that Jason Bay is likely to sign elsewhere. And, certainly if a big name player is going to be acquired in a trade, then Clay Buchholz is going to be part of the package.

But I don’t think the Sox will be acquiring Gonzalez. I think new San Diego GM Jed Hoyer would look bad trading the team’s star player to his old employer. Or, to put it another way, Hoyer will be asking for more prospects than Theo Epstein will be willing to part with. And that kind of restraint could be a good thing. The Red Sox farm system seems terribly low on Major-League-ready talent, and a blockbuster deal like this would only set player development back even farther.

But there is one player no one is mentioning, who I think could be moved in a deal like this: Dustin Pedroia. Pedey is a good player. He’s from California. He’d bring some star-power to help replace that lost by the departure of Gonzalez. And he has a reasonable contract. The Sox would hate to lose him, I’m sure, but you’ve got to give up something for a player like Gonzalez. I could see a deal that lands Gonzalez for Buchholz, Pedroia, Mike Lowell and $10,000,000 (to offset Lowell’s salary).

Then the Sox opening day lineup might look like this:

• Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
• J.D. Drew (RF)
• Adrian Gonzalez (1st)
• Kevin Youkilis (3rd)
• Victor Martinez (C)
• Xavier Nady/Jeremy Hermidia (LF)
• David Ortiz (DH)
• Placido Polanco (2nd)
• Alex Gonzalez (SS)

Not gonna happen? Well, I’m just speculating.

Some salve for the wound

Red Sox fans can take solace in the fact that the Yankees’ unfair advantage has not gone unnoticed by one of baseball’s top writers, here. Truly, you have to wonder what Derek Jeter feels about this championship deep down in his heart. What do all the Yankees feel? Relief, probably. But it is hard to see how they can be proud when they have such an unfair advantage over every other team in the sport.

That which will not be mentioned!

Time to avoid the sports pages and web sites discussing baseball for a few days, or maybe weeks. That which will not be mentioned has occurred and the best thing Red Sox fans — or at least this Red Sox fan — can do is to just ignore it. Pretend it didn’t happen. When Sports Center comes on, stick your fingers in your ears, close your eyes and chant, “Oh four, oh four, oh four” over and over a again until it is safe to get back to watching football previews for the upcoming weekend. Today and probably tomorrow will be the worst. Stories may go on for a few minutes, but with the weekend almost here, football will quickly push aside this latest tragedy, and we’ll get back to updates on Tom Brady’s knee, Eli Manning’s heel, the showdown between the Cowboys and Eagles, and other important gridiron concerns. (But beware, there will be a resurgence of the story when the inevitable ticker-tape period takes place, probably on Monday or maybe Saturday.)

Then, in a couple of weeks, the off-season will begin in earnest, and we can begin discussing Theo Epstein’s mission as he ramps up for 2010, with the hope of ensuring this kind of travesty does not happen again.

Now is the winter of my discontent

The Angels beat the Yankees last night to extend the American League Championship Series to a sixth game to be played in the Bronx. Whoopee! Pardon my lack of enthusiasm, but once the Sox are out of the playoffs, my interest level falls to about the level of Rush Limbaugh’s sense of shame.

Yes, of course, I hope the Yankees lose, and I’ll be routing for the Phillies no matter which AL team they face. But I’m already more interested in what moves Theo Epstein will make this off season to prepare the Red Sox for 2010. To that end, this article by Tony Massarotti is very interesting.

Still, I need more of a Red Sox fix. Even though it has been nearly two weeks since the Sox season ended, I find myself logging onto my computer to get some news… any news… because I’ve become used to checking the box scores each night or day. Now I need to hear about a free agent signing or a blockbuster deal.

The problem is, I don’t actually expect either of those to occur this off season, so I am anticipating a long, dull (in terms of the Sox) winter, one that will be made all the worse if the Yankees win the World Series, an all-too-likely possibility.

Go Angels and Phillies! Ho, hum.

End of an era?

The Red Sox will play no more in 2009 thanks to a shocking meltdown by closer Jonathan Papelbon. Or was it that shocking? Papelbon has been shaky all year, despite his save numbers, which look deceiptively good. I’m not saying Pap was bad… He is still one of the top dozen closers in the game. But he appears no longer dependable… i.e. he’s no Mariano Rivera. Papelbon’s best performances may well be behind him.

And sadly this may be the case with many significant Red Sox players: David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Jason Varitek are each in the twilight of his career.

The rest of the pitching staff is shaky, too. Jon Lester is a very good pitcher, but he can’t be your ace. Josh Beckett may never regain the form of his 2007 season, not for a whole year. Clay Buchholz looks like he’d be a good fourth or fifth pitcher, but not more than that. And Dice-K… the man the Sox have invest $100 million dollars in, didn’t even see an inning during the Angels series.

The bullpen has even bigger questions. Is Daniel Bard the heir apparent to Papelbon? If so, who takes his place in the setup roll? Billy Wagner probably won’t be back. Manny Delcarmenn regressed to the point that he was left off the playoff roster. Ramon Ramirez was good at the start of the year, but became undependable as the innings added up over the season.

So Theo Epstein has his work cut out for him in the months to come. He’s going to have to rebuild the bullpen, shore up the starting pitching, and, probably his biggest challenge, find a way to add a difference-making bat or two to the lineup. Frankly, I don’t think he will be able to turn this team around for 2010. There’s just too much work, and the farm system’s depth is a mirage. I think we’ve seen the end of an era when we could expect the Sox to make the playoffs every year, and be a legitimate contender. I just hope that the championship draught period doesn’t last 86 years.

Down two games to none…

… what will happen? After losing last night in Anaheim, the Sox frustrating season may be nearing its end.

In the past decade, the Red Sox have seemed at their most invincible when facing elimination in the playoffs. But this team feels different. It doesn’t seem to have that same fire, and even pride. They had beaten their arch division rivals, the Yankees, the first eight games of the season, then lost nine of the next 10 against them. Coming down the stretch toward the end of the season, they couldn’t beat Kansas City! I suppose the fact that they don’t let these things bother them is the one hope I have that the Sox can reel off three straight against the Angels, especially with the next two games at Fenway.

But I am not optimistic. This is a flawed team. I don’t know where the flaw is, but I can tell you where it is not: Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Lowell, Victor Martinez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon. So who does that leave? J.D. Drew? Clay Buchholz?

Maybe the flaw is just in the lineup chemistry. There have been too many games when this team does not score runs… and that was the problem against the Angels the first two games of the series. It is a problem that Theo Epstein is going to have to address in the offseason. Let’s just hope he doesn’t get to start that work Monday morning.

Stumbling into the playoffs

I guess congratulations are in order. The Boston Red Sox have qualified for the post season yet again. Can’t be too much celebrating in the club house, however, as the Sox have lost five straight games and seven of their last nine. This isn’t exactly a team with a lot of momentum at the moment. And having watched over the past seven years how Terry Francona operates, I’d guess they’re going to be spending more effort lining up their post season line ups than trying to win their remaining games. On paper this makes sense, and it has worked in the past… but I still get very nervous when my team is floundering entering the playoffs. I want them to look more like an irresistable force than a staggered boxer.

Anyway, as is always the case, time will tell. In the meantime, here’s to Youk, Pedroia, Bay, Ellsbury, Lowell, Big Papi, Tek, Martinez, Drew, Gonzalez, Lester, Beckett, Paps, Wake, Buchholz, etc… It will soon be time to prove you deserve to be in the playoffs again.

This just doesn’t seem fair…

From Boston.com:

Daisuke Matsuzaka threw 6 2/3 innings in his start last night for Single A Salem in the team’s playoff game against Winston-Salem, giving up three hits, one run, one walk, and seven strikeouts. He threw 89 pitches, 61 for strikes . . .

Okay, I know the Sox needed Dice-K to get in some additional work before he returns to the major leagues, but pitching him in a Single A playoff game? I just hope the players on Winston-Salem were excited to be batting against such a notorious pitcher!

Because I gotta write something

It’s been a couple of weeks or more since my last post here, an absence which is the result of a major ambivalence about this Red Sox team and the latest moves by Theo and the front office. After the gritty way in which the Sox took two of three games from the Rays last week in Tampa, I was ready to believe this team was playoff bound and ready. Then they drooped into Chicago, losing three of four to the struggling White Sox and I’m back to wondering when this team is going to play to their potential… or, indeed, if that’s exactly what they are doing.

I liked the move to bring in Billy Wagner. I was ambivalent about the trade for Alex Gonzalez, though I’d say that has reaped rewards already. I scratched my head over the return of Paul Byrd, especially when the Sox could have landed Pedro Martinez a few weeks earlier!

What is especially puzzling is the way in which almost all the players the Sox have cast away during the season (Julio Lugo, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Mark Kotsay) have succeeded with their new teams. In fact, the way Lugo, Smoltz and the other former Red Sox, Joel Piniero, have played for the Cardinals caused me to quip in the comments section of some article over on Boston.com that the surest way to get Jason Varitek back on track offensively is to trade him to St. Louis. But seriously, doesn’t it make you wonder about the Sox coaching staff? For all the tinkering with pitch counts, do these guys really know what they are doing, or are they fiddling while Rome burns?

There is still plenty of baseball left, so there is still time for the Sox to get on track and to build momentum for the playoffs. I’m just coming to the conclusion that they really aren’t good enough and don’t deserve to be there. In fact, I almost HOPE they don’t make it, because it will be a good lesson for a lot of these players that they can’t take the post season for granted — which I think they are, given the types of responses they give to questions. For instance:

“It was a 3-4 road trip. It wasn’t like it was an abomination of a road trip, as [Dustin] Pedroia would say,’’ said [Jason] Bay. “We go home and get a chance to add to the lead that we have in the wild-card chase. I don’t think anyone’s looking much farther ahead than that. Still a good position to be in.”

Sure, they are trying to show the world they are not panicking, but they sound to me like a team that thinks they can coast their way into the playoffs and then turn on the afterburners for the run to the World Series. Or worse still, that making the playoffs is all they NEED to do. Failing to make the playoffs may give both the players and management a greater sense of urgency about 2010 during the offseason. After all, the year after the last time they missed the postseason they came back to win the World Series.

Who are those guys?

After taking three of four games last week from the AL Central leading Detroit Tigers, the Red Sox looked ready to re-establish themselves as a strong playoff force. Then they wilted in the heat of Texas and are now a half game behind the Rangers in the wild card race. This is not good, but all you needed to do was take a look at the lineup for yesterday’s 4 to 3 loss to understand what’s wrong with this team.

Five of the nine starters were not on the Red Sox three weeks ago!

• Victor Martinez (Indians) was catching.
• Casey Kotchman (Braves) was at first.
• Alex Gonzalez (Reds) was at short stop.
• Brian Anderson (White Sox) was in right field (subbing, of course, for the every ailing J.D. Drew).
• And Junichi Tazawa (Pawtuckett) was pitching.

Of course, Martinez and Kotchman are quality professional ball players. Alex Gonzalex is a decent defensive short stop, but he’s no Nick Green with a bat! Brian Anderson — who? huh? And Tazawa was an amateur in the Japanese Industrial League just last year.

In other words, what the Sox have right now is not a team but a patch job. While I can’t blame general manager Theo Epstein for the moves that have brought in these players — what else was he going to do? — one can blame him for the team that came into this season and resulted in this situation:

• Two years ago Theo signed the perpetually injured J.D. Drew to an absurd contract. Take away about 10 at bats during his two-plus seasons with the Sox and Drew is a complete washout for the kind of money he’s getting, and he is continually sitting on the bench with another physical problem. The guy is as fragile as 14-year-old girl’s self esteem.
• Two years ago Theo brought in Julio Lugo to be the Sox permanent solution at leadoff hitter and shortstop. The Sox are now paying Lugo to play for the St. Louis Cardinals, and had to go out to get the light-hitting (and that’s really an insult to light-hitters) Gonzalez to stabilize the infield.
• Surprisingly, Theo seems not to have noticed that Jason Varitek has had birthdays in each of the past seven years… That is, Varitek was clearly aging, but Epstein did little — and what he did was ineffective — to find and groom a replacement. Therefore he was forced to ship out Justin Masterson, who could probably have been moved from the pen to the starting rotation, to the Indians for Victor Martinez.
• Rather than sign a genuine starting pitcher in the off-season, Theo tried to round out the rotation on the cheap with reclamation projects Brad Penny and John Smoltz. Smoltz is now gone and Penny has been mostly erratic, and certainly not chewing up innings.
• For outfield depth, Theo signed local favorite and sentimental choice Rocco Baldelli. But Baldelli has a physical condition that prevents him from playing every day, which you think would have been a red flag given the likelihood that Drew would need continual relief from his duties. Thus you’ve got Brian Anderson in right field (and a week ago against the Yankees Kevin Youkilis in left field).

Some of these moves may be the result of ownership asking Theo to be careful this past off-season, given the economy.  After all, no one knew for sure if fans would even be able to continue to fill Fenway. But mostly these moves are just mistakes. With one or two better decisions, this Sox team could be competing with the Yankees right now.

(I hate to admit it, but Tony Massarrotti was right about signing Mark Teixeira — just think if the Sox had him and Yankees didn’t.)

The bottom line for me is that I now think it likely the Sox won’t make the playoffs this year. They just have too many holes and the few guys who can carry them — who HAVE carried them — just are not able to take the team on their shoulders this time (I’m talking about Jason Bay, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis).

But I do think the nucleous is here for a very good team. With a few more pieces, with a few new young guys from the farm system this team could be very dangerous next year. All it will take are two or three astute moves by Theo Epstein in the off season. Is he up to it?